Fossil fuel decline plotted
Global authorities have issued a stark warning about fossil fuel demand.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted a major decline of fossil fuel demand by 2030.
The group’s World Energy Outlook 2023 (WEO-2023) predicts that all three major fossil fuel categories - natural gas, oil, and coal - will peak by 2030, even in a mild state policy scenario. This is the first time such a prediction has been made by the IEA.
According to the report, the global energy system is rapidly transitioning to low-emission electricity and energy supply, with a significant increase in clean energy technologies, notably solar photovoltaics (PV) and electric vehicles (EVs).
However, to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C, fossil fuel extraction and use must decrease by nearly 30 per cent by 2030, highlighting the need for more ambitious government action.
The IEA's report also notes a 20 per cent increase in clean energy investment since 2020, driven by the economic viability of mature clean energy technologies and the desire for enhanced energy security.
Electric vehicles are gaining popularity, with one in five cars sold in 2023 being electric.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has stressed the inevitability of the clean energy transition, saying; “It's not a question of 'if,' it's just a matter of 'how soon'.”
The report serves as a clear warning to Australia, urging it to move away from fossil fuels and embrace renewable energy.
The WEO-2023 report also highlights the rapid growth of clean energy technologies, with projections of a tenfold increase in electric cars on the road, solar PV surpassing the entire US power system's electricity generation, and renewables constituting nearly 50 per cent of the global electricity mix.
However, it says stronger policies are needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
The report outlines five key pillars for achieving this goal: tripling global renewable capacity, doubling energy efficiency improvements, reducing methane emissions from fossil fuel operations, increasing clean energy investments in emerging economies, and phasing out fossil fuel use.