The electricity grid in the Top End is at risk of blackouts within the next three years.

A new report says that the Northern Territory (NT) Government's slow response to the increasing number of rooftop solar installations and the scheduled retirement of gas generators is creating blackout risks. 

The revelation comes from the NT Utilities Commission's 2022 Electricity Outlook Report, which emphasises the need for immediate action and investment decisions to ensure a secure Darwin-Katherine power system beyond 2026/27.

This is not the first time the independent regulator has issued such warnings, as its three previous outlook reports have highlighted similar concerns. 

According to the 2022 report, if a solution is not found soon for the expected retirement of 185 megawatts of generation capacity at Channel Island, which accounts for 47 per cent of the current capacity in the Darwin-Katherine grid, the region may struggle to meet its electricity demand within the next four years.

“Delays in meeting the emerging challenges and risks to the territory's power systems means less time to respond, which may increase risks and costs, and ultimately negatively impact territory electricity consumers and taxpayers,” the report says.  

While the NT Government has acknowledged the urgency of the situation and is responding, most of the plans to address these issues are still in the developmental stage and have not yet progressed to the investment stage required to be included in the report's forecasts.

To ensure the ongoing stability of the electricity grid, the NT opposition says increased investment is crucial. 

However, the opposition pointed out that Power and Water, the electricity provider, faces a significant debt of $1.2 billion, while the NT government's overall debt amounts to $9 billion, hindering investment efforts.

In response, Minister for Essential Services Selena Uibo assured that the NT government has been closely collaborating with the Utilities Commission to ensure the security of the electricity system. 

She says the Darwin-Katherine Electricity System Plan and Territory Generation's Fleet Transition Plan are among the initiatives that will address the identified issues. 

The commission acknowledged the government's plans for future generation capacity, replacing the retiring gas-fired generators, and immediate investments in essential services required for the safe implementation of renewable energy projects.

Furthermore, the NT Government's target of generating 50 per cent of electricity from renewables by 2030 seems to be off track. 

Despite the construction of four large commercial solar farms in the region over the past three years, these projects have yet to contribute electricity to the grid. 

The lack of urgency and policy certainty in the territory hampers private industry investment in the electricity supply industry, unless projects are underwritten by the government, as noted by the Utilities Commission.

The report also highlighted a 5.5 per cent increase in energy consumption in the Darwin-Katherine grid during 2021/22, partly attributed to the rising temperatures in the Darwin region. 

With 275 days surpassing a maximum daily temperature of 32 degrees, it was the highest number of such days in recent history.