Nord Stream methane measured
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Researchers have estimated how much methane leaked from the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines.
A series of explosions in September 2022 caused extensive damage to the Nord Stream pipelines beneath the Baltic Sea, releasing an estimated 465,000 metric tons of methane.
The event has been described as the largest single methane release on record.
The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, majority-owned by Russian state-controlled energy giant Gazprom, were designed to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany. At the time of the incident, the pipelines were filled with natural gas but inactive due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
The explosions, classified as sabotage by Swedish and Danish investigations, rendered three of the four pipelines inoperable.
New research has quantified the environmental fallout.
The methane release from the Nord Stream incident was equivalent to 1.2 per cent of annual global emissions from the natural gas sector and 0.3 per cent of methane emissions from agriculture. Methane dissolved in seawater eventually returned to the atmosphere, a process tracked using advanced modelling techniques. Satellite and airborne measurements have corroborated these findings.
Additionally, approximately 14 per cent of the Baltic Sea experienced methane levels five times higher than average, affecting 23 marine protected areas, though the long-term ecological consequences remain unclear.
The incident occurred one day before the Baltic Pipe, transporting North Sea gas to Poland, became operational.
Investigations into the sabotage have spanned multiple nations. Germany, Denmark, and Sweden conducted separate probes, with Sweden and Denmark closing their cases in early 2024 without assigning responsibility.
However, Germany's investigation remains ongoing, and evidence, including traces of military-grade explosives on the site and a yacht linked to the incident, has surfaced.
The Andromeda, a 15-metre yacht suspected of involvement, was reportedly near the explosion sites before the incident. Traces of military explosives on the vessel matched those found on the pipeline.
German authorities issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian national linked to the yacht, but the suspect remains at large, allegedly returning to Ukraine using diplomatic channels.
Speculation regarding the culprits ranges from state-sponsored sabotage to complex false-flag operations.
Russia has denied involvement, while some analysts suggest Moscow could benefit by justifying halted gas supplies.
Others argue that Ukrainian operatives may have targeted the pipelines to weaken Russia's leverage over Europe, though no conclusive evidence has been presented.
The Nord Stream explosions underscored vulnerabilities in critical energy infrastructure and heightened geopolitical tensions.
The methane release, though representing only 0.1 per cent of global anthropogenic methane emissions in 2022, highlights the broader climate risks associated with methane, a greenhouse gas significantly more potent than carbon dioxide over short timescales.
Experts are calling for improved oversight and rapid-response mechanisms to prevent future incidents of this magnitude.
The estimates are detailed in three papers published in Nature and Nature Communications, accessible here, here and here.
